Category 5 Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica’s south-west on Tuesday 28 October with sustained winds near 185mph, a landfall the US National Hurricane Center called “extremely dangerous,” with catastrophic winds, flash flooding and storm surge. Jamaica pre-emptively closed both international airports as the eyewall moved ashore, and early reports flagged widespread power cuts and blocked roads across multiple parishes.

Pressure readings underline why Melissa is exceptional: the storm deepened to about 892 millibars on Tuesday morning, with the NHC’s special updates putting maximum winds at 185mph-lower pressure and stronger winds than Hurricane Katrina at peak in 2005. That places Melissa among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record for both pressure and wind.

The immediate risk is water. The NHC has warned of 15–30 inches (38–76cm) of rain across Jamaica, with isolated totals approaching 40 inches (around 1 metre) in mountainous areas. A storm surge up to about four metres is possible along parts of the south and east coasts, compounding river flooding from the Blue Mountains down to low-lying plains. Slow forward motion-only a few miles per hour-means these hazards can persist for many hours.

Melissa’s pathway traces a classic Atlantic arc that is becoming more supercharged by ocean heat. A tropical wave left West Africa in mid-October; by 21 October the system was named, reached major-hurricane strength over the weekend, and intensified to Category 5 by Monday before making a Tuesday landfall in Jamaica. That rapid ramp-up aligns with the NHC’s warnings and aircraft data captured through successive advisories.

Warmth in the water and the air helped. Satellite analyses show Caribbean sea-surface temperatures running roughly 1–2°C above average in September–October, providing deep oceanic fuel. NOAA’s research synthesis also notes medium-to-high confidence that tropical cyclone rainfall rates increase in a warmer climate, and that the share of the most intense storms is projected to rise this century.

Jamaica’s exposure is structural as well as meteorological. About 70% of the population lives in coastal areas, where critical infrastructure-from ports to tourism corridors-clusters on land already prone to surge and riverine floods. This geography means a slow, soaking hurricane becomes a nationwide problem, not just a shoreline event.

Outages escalated quickly. By Tuesday morning, Jamaica Public Service reported roughly 240,000 customers-about 35%-without electricity, with western parishes hardest hit. Utilities cautioned that debris, saturated soils and downed trees would slow restoration until winds ease and floodwaters recede.

Air connectivity was severed ahead of the core’s arrival. Norman Manley International (Kingston) and Sangster International (Montego Bay) suspended operations in advance, a step that reduces risk for passengers and staff but also delays post-storm logistics until runways are cleared and navigational aids are inspected.

Sheltering capacity was mobilised at scale. ODPEM activated more than 800 shelters nationwide, and thousands of Jamaicans sought refuge as conditions deteriorated. Officials stressed evacuation from flood-prone gullies and coastal settlements, citing past fatal flooding along river networks that can turn into fast-moving torrents during stalled storms.

What helps immediately is simple, local and life-saving: heed shelter advice; avoid driving through floodwater; move valuables and electrics above expected flood levels; and keep drinking water sealed and elevated. For households in surge zones, vertical evacuation within sturdy, upper-storey rooms is safer than staying on ground floors. These are the same behaviours emergency agencies emphasise before every landfall for a reason-they work.

There is, however, a path to recovering stronger. Jamaica has expanded risk financing and readiness tools this year, including a World Bank-backed facility that unlocks rapid funding after disasters and supports code updates for critical buildings. Investments in early warning, resilient water systems and emergency budgets reduce the time families spend without basic services after a major storm.

Nature can do engineered work too. World Bank assessments in Jamaica show healthy mangroves can cut wave heights by roughly 36–55% and slow winds significantly-protection that matters when surge rides atop already high seas. Mangrove restoration in places like Portland Cottage and Bogue Lagoon is a cost‑effective buffer that complements seawalls and raised roads.

After Jamaica, Melissa’s hazards shift but do not disappear. Forecast guidance flagged eastern Cuba and the south-eastern Bahamas for dangerous winds, flooding and surge as the cyclone tracks northeast, with authorities already executing large-scale evacuations in Cuba. The slower the system moves, the more rain and landslide risk builds, especially on steep terrain.

Research indicates that very slow-moving hurricanes increase flood impacts, and some studies suggest average translation speeds have declined in recent decades-a contested but consequential signal in a warming climate. Whether or not Melissa fits that longer-term pattern, its crawl is precisely what forecasters fear because it stacks rainfall over the same communities.

For an island already experienced with Gilbert in 1988, Dean in 2007 and Beryl in 2024, Melissa is a different scale of test. The immediate priority is keeping people safe. The longer task is accelerating the measures that protect lives and livelihoods-stronger codes, smarter grids, restored wetlands and emergency finance that arrives before the next season does. Jamaica has been laying that groundwork; the return on those investments starts now.