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Data-Driven Environmental Journalism

NSpOC: UK satellite collision alerts rose in October 2025

October brought a busier sky for the UK’s space guardians. The UK Space Agency’s National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC) reports higher activity but steady management: collision alerts rose and re‑entries climbed, yet overall risk stayed below the 12‑month rolling average. All warning and protection services operated throughout the month without interruption.

NSpOC tracked a 15% month‑on‑month rise in objects returning through the atmosphere. In total, 54 re‑entries were recorded in October-52 satellites and two rocket bodies. While most hardware burns up during descent, transparent reporting keeps emergency planners ready for the rare cases where fragments persist, and helps engineers refine demisability models for safer designs.

Set against the year, October sits mid‑range. Across the last 12 months, monthly re‑entries fluctuated from a low of 34 in August to a high of 129 in February, with October’s 54 landing closer to the middle of that spread, according to the UK Space Agency’s NSpOC data.

Collision‑avoidance alerts for UK‑licensed satellites were notably higher. NSpOC logged 2,398 alerts in October, up 56% on September’s 1,537. Alerts flag close approaches between UK‑licensed spacecraft and other satellites or debris over the previous 30 days. They are an early‑warning tool, not evidence of imminent impact, enabling operators to plan manoeuvres only when risk crosses agreed thresholds.

Population growth in orbit continued alongside this. The US Satellite Catalogue recorded a net increase of 160 Resident Space Objects in October, taking the tracked total to 31,676. The UK Space Agency notes that catalogue counts may be revised as tracking refines, but the overall direction is clear: more objects in orbit can mean more interactions to manage.

There were no new fragmentation incidents this month. A clean month for break‑ups matters: each fragmentation can create thousands of debris pieces, which in turn can multiply alert rates and raise operational costs. Avoiding fresh break‑ups is one of the simplest ways to keep collision risk trending lower.

Space weather was slightly elevated, with geomagnetic storms recorded throughout October. Periods of heightened solar activity increase atmospheric drag at low Earth orbit, subtly altering satellite paths. That can nudge the number of close‑approach alerts up or down even when the on‑orbit population is unchanged, which is why pairing conjunction analysis with space‑weather monitoring remains good practice.

For the UK, this is about protecting daily life. Climate monitoring, weather forecasting, emergency communications, maritime safety and navigation all rely on safe, predictable orbits. October’s bulletin suggests the risk picture is being managed effectively, but the steady rise in tracked objects underscores the need to keep improving transparency and coordination.

Operators can act now by reviewing conjunction‑screening thresholds, sharing planned manoeuvres earlier with coordination centres, and maintaining robust passivation and end‑of‑life disposal plans. International guidance-from NASA’s Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices to ESA’s push toward ā€˜Zero Debris’-points to the same practical playbook: design to minimise debris, fly responsibly and retire satellites on schedule. The October data provides a clear baseline for that continued work.

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